Missed out on alibaba.com

My limit buy order for alibaba.com (1688) at HKE did not go through. It looks like trading opened at HKD 30.00, or perhaps at HKD 32.00, with a low of HKD 28.00 so far and a high of HKD 36.00

I shall have to find a way to open an account with a broker in Hong Kong so as not to miss future opportunities on the Hong Kong Exchange.

alibaba.com

I place a limit buy order for alibaba.com at HKD 16.90 at the Hong Kong Exchange (HKE). Because I have no broker in Hong Kong I place my order with the Swiss bank UBS and as it does not accept market orders I have to make it a limit order. The stock's symbol at HKE is 1688.

The IPO for alibaba.com closed on 25 October, issue price HKD 13.50, and the trading of the stock will start at HKE on 6 November. One of the many news articles on the subject is on Bloomberg.com

I expect the price to go up after the open on this first trading day, but because I cannot give an order to buy at market I cannot be sure if my order will be executed. Unlike for shares at other markets, I cannot give orders for KHE stock online; I have to call UBS or send on online message. With the 7-hour time difference between Hong Kong and Switzerland, it will be 03:00 hours in Switzerland when the market opens in Hong Kong at 10:00 hours, and my broker won't be at his desk before 08:00 hours Swiss time.

Thoughts on Google

Every time I think that the price of Google (NYSE:GOOG) is about to peak another news story comes out indicating still brighter prospects. A recent story was the planned cooperation between Google and Verizon. Not as close as Goole would like, but it is a start.

One obstacle to wider Internet use on mobile phones is the pricing by mobile phone service providers. From what I see, in most parts of the world the user pays for each kB he downloads. What I would like to see is a low monthly flat rate for unlimited download. I guess we need more competition in this industry, real competition, before this will happen. Perhaps we need Google to become a mobile phone service provider. Google gave some hints at the Google Analyst Day on 24 October.

Sold Holcim

Yesterday's close gave a clear sell signal on the trandline. My order to sell it at the open gets executed at CHF 128.00, at a profit of 0.5% in 8 days.

Sell order for Holcim

Before the open today, I give a sell order for Holcim (HOLN) at market.

Sold u-blox

My limit sell order for u-blox (UBXN) at CHF 66.00 gets executed shortly after the open, with a gain of 10% in three days.

UBXN: first trading day

That was an interesting first trading day after the IPO for u-blox (UBXN). The stock opened at CHF 60.00, the price fell during the morning to a low of CHF 57.80, then rallied in the afternoon with low volume, and closed at CHF 61.00. During the last quarter-hour it traded slightly below the threndline on the 5-minute chart, but at a minuscule volume.

Analising GOOG

The price of Google (GOOG) dropped to the trendline on 22 October but has continued to rally. Yesterday, it closed at USD 668.51, well above the trendline, and stochastic remains high.

Bought UBXN

I got only 4% of the subscribed quantity of u-blox (UBXN) allocated, at CHF 51.00.

Before the open today I ordered some more at market and they got bought at CHF 60.00. Later, the price dropped, with a low of CHF 58.10 so far.

I now place a limit sell order at CHF 66.00 valid until 31 October, only for the quantity I bought at market today, not the small quantity I got allocated on subscription.

Bought Holcim

I buy Holcim (HOLN) towards the close at CHF 127.40. This is the same price at which the stock opened today.

Watching HOLN

Today's closing price confirms the buy signal given yesterday on the trendline, but stochastic 15/5/15 does not confirm it.

I shall watch it at the open tomorrow and decide then whether to take the risk to buy it. Does today's doji candle signal the beginning of an uptrend?.

Subscribed u-blox

A little bird told me about the IPO of u-blox and I subscribe some shares.

"October 16, 2007 -- u-blox Holding AG publishes today the details of its planned initial public offering (IPO) on the SWX Swiss Exchange. The price range for the registered shares being offered will be between CHF 42 and CHF 54 per share. Bookbuilding will start today and is expected to end on October 25, 2007, 12.00 noon (CET). The first trading day on the main segment of the SWX Swiss Exchange is planned for October 26, 2007."

Evaluating HOLN

The price of Holcim (HOLN) has been falling steadily and I am drawing a trendline to look out for a buy signal.

I see that stochastic 15/5/15 does not give reliable signals and I shall have to experiment with other parameters.

Analysing HTC

I look at the chart of Taiwaniese company High Tech Computer, after reading in a market research report of UBS dated 13 October 2007 about a potential project with Google (GOOG):

”Given HTC’s strong confidence in its differentiation capability, we believe the company is exploring new business opportunities that outsiders might perceive as potential risks such as ODM projects for GOOG (Google) or Sony Ericsson. We believe these are confirmations of HTC’s leading industry position in the smartphone market and could generate potential upside to the street 2008 forecast.

Our checks suggest HTC is scheduled to ship ~50,000 handsets with a GOOG OS by the end of 07. We believe the timing could be earlier than the market expectation and the volume could be small initially given it will be for developers to build more applications only. UBS Internet services analyst Benjamin A. Schachter believes GOOG needs to find carrier partners and more details could be available at GOOG’s analyst day on October 24^th.

Given the software is from Google and HTC only provides the hardware designs, we think the possibility to endanger HTC’s relationship with Microsoft should be limited. This is also because HTC could still account for over 70% share in the Windows platform in 2008 according to our estimate and thus Microsoft could still depend on HTC to generate the overall volume growth. We believe other projects with GOOG are in the plans for 08 and the volume could be more meaningful.”

I see that the market has already factored these exptectations into the price. In view of the high volatility of the price, I decide against buying the stock at this time.

GOOG looks alright for today

20 minutes before the open the bid for GOOG is USD 630.11. I worried for nothing or, more likely, too early about a reversal. At the moment, the rally continues.

Evaluating GOOG

Yesterday, GOOG closed at USD 616.00 only minimally above the trendline. Stochastic gave a sell signal already the day before yesterday.

The stock has had an excellent run and I fear a reversal. At the open today I will watch it closely, with a view to selling it if indicated.

Sold Holcim

My order to sell HOLN at market at the open gets executed at CHF 133.60, with a gain of 12% in 48 days.

Sell order for Holcim

Today's closing price gives a sell signal on the trendline and I place an order to sell at market at the open tomorrow.

Sold Swatch

The closing price on Friday, 5 October gave a sell signal on the trendline and I sell Swatch (UHR) today at CHF 376.50, with a gain of 3.2% in 46 days.

Next time, I shall buy UHRN on SWX. With the same transaction dates, this would have given me a gain of 8.5%

Evaluating GOOG

The trendline gave a sell signal on 4 October, stochastic already on 2 October, but I am holding on to GOOG for the moment and will see what Monday brings.