Is Holcim turning around?

Today's close of Holcim (SIX:HOLN) of CHF 68.30 gives a buy signal but I don't trust it. On 4 May 2011 the price gapped down to a level similar to that on 1 July 2010, and that time the price dropped to a low of CHF 59.95 before a long-term recovery started.

Holcim: sold today

I sold Holcim (SWX:HOLN) today at the open at CHF 66.50, resulting in a loss of 1.0% in 8 days. Yesterday's close gave me a sell signal.

Holcim not going the way I expected

Holcim  did close the gap yesterday, after all, three hours after the open. This should teach me not to be too rash in buying a stock. I should have paid attention also to MACD.

Holcim: bought today

Holcim (SWX:HOLN) opened higher than Fridays's close and it did not look like it was going to close the gap, so I bought some at CHF 67.15 and some at 67.20, average 67.1563.

Limit order to buy Holcim

Just gave an order to buy Holcim (SWX:HOLN) with a limit of CHF 66.75, which was yesterdays close.

The price might fall again to CHF 66.00, but I am speculating on it going up.

Holcim forming a pennant?

Now that the market has closed for today I want to have a closer look at what seems like the formation of a pennant, also known as bear flag, on the chart of Holcim (SWX:HOLN). This is what Investopedia says about it:

"The pennant is identified by two converging trendlines, more horizontal, which resembles a symmetrical triangle. It is characterised by diminishing volume."

A third criterion is mentioned by stockcharts.com:

"Even though flags and pennants are common formations, identification guidlines should not be taken lightly. It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and trading could carry added risk. Look for volume confirmation on the initial move, consolidation and resumption to augment the robustness of pattern identification."

I see that the development over the past few days meets all three criteria so far. If the price range remains within the two converging lines Friday and Monday and the volume remains low, this should be confirmation of a pennant.

Looking at Holcim

Scouting for new buy candidates, I am looking at Holcim (SWX: HOLN). A news report published yesterday, only in German, says that Morgan Stanley has reduced the price target from 62.50 to 59.50, yet today the price is going up. Is this a reflection of how little the market thinks of the analysis made by Morgan Stanley.

At any rate, I am going to keep watching HOLN and see if it breaks out of the channel I have drawn on the chart.

Holcim: sold today

I didn't like the way the price of Holcim (SWX: HOLN) has been falling in the past few days and sold it today at CHF 75.60, at a profit of 3.3% in 26 days.

Holcim: bought today following buy signal

After the stock closed above the trendline yesterday I bought Holcim (SWX: HOLN) at the open today, at CHF 73.20

Holcim: getting close to a buy signal

After missing out on the last few rallies on Holcim (SWX: HOLN) I am now keeping a closer eye on it. Will it give a buy signal at the end of today.

Watching Holcim

I haven't followed Holcim (SWX: HOLN) for a long time and now see that I missed the start of a rally on 15 July 2009.

Staying in cash

Although I have kept watching certain stocks such as Holcim (HOLN) and Swsatch (UHRN) I did not buy them when the buy signals came on the charts, preferring to stay in cash instead through the end of the year.

Analysing Holcim

I see a resistance for Holcim (HOLN) at CHF 117.60, the low on 17 August 2007. Will it hold?

Analysing Holcim

It looks like I sold Holcim (HOLN) two soon last week. It is a tough stock for technical analysis. I now added the zig-zag line to the chart but shall have see to how useful it can be.

As it stands now, I shall wait for a new bottom before considering buying it a gain, and I can perhaps use relative strength (RSI) and momentum to to confirm signals on the trendline.

Sold Holcim

Yesterday's close gave a clear sell signal on the trandline. My order to sell it at the open gets executed at CHF 128.00, at a profit of 0.5% in 8 days.

Sell order for Holcim

Before the open today, I give a sell order for Holcim (HOLN) at market.

Bought Holcim

I buy Holcim (HOLN) towards the close at CHF 127.40. This is the same price at which the stock opened today.

Watching HOLN

Today's closing price confirms the buy signal given yesterday on the trendline, but stochastic 15/5/15 does not confirm it.

I shall watch it at the open tomorrow and decide then whether to take the risk to buy it. Does today's doji candle signal the beginning of an uptrend?.

Evaluating HOLN

The price of Holcim (HOLN) has been falling steadily and I am drawing a trendline to look out for a buy signal.

I see that stochastic 15/5/15 does not give reliable signals and I shall have to experiment with other parameters.

Sold Holcim

My order to sell HOLN at market at the open gets executed at CHF 133.60, with a gain of 12% in 48 days.