18 November 2010

Holcim forming a pennant?

Now that the market has closed for today I want to have a closer look at what seems like the formation of a pennant, also known as bear flag, on the chart of Holcim (SWX:HOLN). This is what Investopedia says about it:

"The pennant is identified by two converging trendlines, more horizontal, which resembles a symmetrical triangle. It is characterised by diminishing volume."

A third criterion is mentioned by stockcharts.com:

"Even though flags and pennants are common formations, identification guidlines should not be taken lightly. It is important that flags and pennants are preceded by a sharp advance or decline. Without a sharp move, the reliability of the formation becomes questionable and trading could carry added risk. Look for volume confirmation on the initial move, consolidation and resumption to augment the robustness of pattern identification."

I see that the development over the past few days meets all three criteria so far. If the price range remains within the two converging lines Friday and Monday and the volume remains low, this should be confirmation of a pennant.

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