Watching Meyer Burger

Rumours have it that the British investment group Generation Investment is increasing its holding of shares of Meyer Burger (SIX:MBTN). Perhaps this is why the price closed higher today.

US oil reserves

The chart on the left shows the price reaction to last year's announcement, on 23 June 2011, of the release of 30 million barrels oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The price dropped abruptly, but recovered within a few days to its previous level. This year, the threat of an economic recession is expected to be another factor putting pressure on the oil price.

Watching Oil ETF

It is difficult to find a trendline for ETFS Brent Oil (LON:OILB), the price of which is falling, but I believe it will have to go a lot lower before it turns around. There are indications that Obama will sell oil reserves to bring the price down.

ABB: bought today

My order to buy ABB (Virt-X:ABBN) at market was executed at CHF 15.64

Placed buy order for ABB

I placed a buy order for ABB (Virt-X:ABBN) at market just now.

FB at NASDAQ

The hype over Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is over, in fact has been over since 15:00 EDT yesterday. The institutional investors no longer defend the USD 38.00 price level. In pre-market trading this morning, FB opened at USD 38.07 and it has been downhill since then, with the price at USD 36.77 at the moment.

FB at Frankfurt exchange

At the Frankfurt exchange, Facebook is at the moment traded at EUR 29.96, equivalent to USD 38.26

Facebook: bought today

This was an interesting day and in fact not quite over yet, as after-hours trading is still on. The start of trading of for Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) was delayed until 11:30 EDT. At 11:40:53 I placed a buy order with a limit of USD 38.00 and this was executed at 15:52:30. There was a low of USD 38.00 earlier, during two one-minute periods between 11:45 and 11:55, but notifications – and presumably also trades – were delayed by over half an hour..

Facebook trading will start only at 11:00 EDT

I finally found information about the starting time of trading of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). It is at 11:00 EDT.

Watching Facebook

Facebook shares were sold to institutional investors yesterday at USD 38 and will trade on NASDAQ today, presumably starting at the open at 09:30 EDT, 15:30 my time. I haven't decided yet whether to buy it.

Amertrade has a collection of news items here.

Gold ETF: bought today

I changed my mind and bought ZKB Gold ETF (SWX:ZGLD) just now at CHF 472.54

Not buying gold yet

The gold price jumped up yesterday, closing at USD 1,574.50

Franklin Sanders wrote this:

   The Gold Price Rose $38.30 Can it Climb Above $1,580 Tomorrow to Confirm Reversal?

   The GOLD PRICE rose 38.30 (up 2.5%) to end at $1,574.50. It left behind a double bottom on Wednesday at $1,527.7 and worked its way up to $1,550. In Europe it danced just under $1,550, then at 8:00 a.m. jumped to $1,557, traded sideways, then gapped up at $1,557 levitated, gapped again ($1,563-$1,566) and shot for $1,580. Closed near the top of the range.

   Folks, metals are strong as a garlic milkshake. To preserve that spike bottom for posterity, gold needs to climb above $1,580 tomorrow and confirm its intent. Milestones of success after that are $1,600, then $1,630. The GOLD PRICE must overcome these quickly, and that I expect to see.

I won't buy the ZKB Gold ETF (SWX:ZGLD) yet today and wait to see how it closes today.

Sanders also wrote:

   Better swap GOLD for SILVER now. Ratio may have topped yesterday. Confirming a reversal in gold and silver, premiums on physical silver and gold are rising rapidly, and that will hurt our realized ratio in a swap. If you plan to swap gold for silver, you'd better do it quickly.

Is gold turning around?

The gold price fell through the bottom line of the channel I have drawn and it will be interesting to see where it goes from here. I shall wait for today's close and then evaluate whether or not to buy.

Yesterday, Franklin Sanders wrote:

     The GOLD PRICE made a low at $1,527.70, practically on my target. Silver posted its low at 2676 c, not far off 2615c support.

     Both the silver and gold are coasting along on their bottom Bollinger Bands, something that hasn't happened since fall 2008. Implication? Silver and gold are monstrously oversold, and will shortly come roaring back with a rally, even if only a temporary one.

     End of this decline ought to come within a week at most, but that euro crisis hangs over everything, scaring everyone to death, much like the 2008 panic in the US.

Gold still moving sideways

I am looking a the channel again I charted a few days ago. The price briefly broke out above the channel but immediately fell back into it again.

Franklin Sanders got it right last year

I did go back and check what Franklin Sanders forecast a year ago. On 10 May 2011 he wrote:

     Should the gold price batter through $1,525, 'twill make a run towards the last high at $1,575.

Not immediately, but on 27 May gold closed at $1,523.94. After that, it went sideways for some three weeks, then dropped to a low of $1,487.17 on 1 July, and the following day took off toward a spectacular high of $1,908.82 on 22 August.

Incidentally, he has had that phrase "Always invest with the primary trend..." at the end of every post, already a year ago, so it is not a current forecast, more like a signature line.

Franklin Sanders about gold

Interesting, what Sanders said about the gold trend after yesterday' close:

     Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Those targets look rather ambitious to me. I think I'll review his past predictions and check how accurate they were.

Looking at gold chart

In the chart on the left I have drawn the support and two resistance lines that Franklin Sanders talks about. I can't figure out how he arrived at $1,645 for support and $1,665 and $1682 for resistance.

Looking at gold

Gold bullion closed above the trendline yesterday, at USD 1666.68/oz, but I hesitate to buy at the moment. Franklin Sanders comments:

     The gold price needs to bust through the $1,682 resistence to confirm next rally.

I can't understand how he sees a resistance at that point. He also says:

     The GOLD PRICE showed the sort of action I deeply love. It opened flat, got pounded on the US open, straight down, then fast and steady rose right out of that hole to close nearly unchanged. Well, closed at $1,663.40, down sixty cents. Why do I like that action? $1,645 support, then returned to challenge $1,665 resistance. This maintains the uptrend and thumbs its nose at sellers.
     On that gold chart with the falling wedge, gold did no more today than fall back for a final kiss good-bye to the upper boundary. If the GOLD PRICE can resist falling below $1,645, then it has broken out of that falling wedge and begun its next rally. Caution: there's likely to be a lot of very slowly rising mostly sideways action for a while. Remember that in the next week or so gold needs to burst through $1,682 resistance.