Evaluating Silicom

Silicom (SILC) yesterday closed the gap-up created on 28 January 2008 and the price has been on the rise since the open this morning. This stock could become a candidate to buy at the open tomorrow.

Bought UBS

My order to buy UBS at USD 28.91 got executed at 09:41:45

I place a trailing stop at 10%.

UBS long position liquidated

I found out only now that Ameritrade used the short sale of UBS I made on 19 February to liquidate my long position for the same quantity. This means that the UBS shares I bought on 16 June 2007 at USD 61.69 were effectively sold on 19 February at USD 33.6901, with a loss of 45.4 % in 248 days.

The limit of USD 28.91, at which I had intended to buy to cover my short position, was reached on three occasions today, at 14:22, 14:24 and 14:39-14:40 EST. As I was out when the email of Ameritrade advising me of the inability to execute my order to buy to cover arrived at 13:58 EST I was unable to buy UBS back at 28.91, which would have had the same monetary effect as holding the long position and carrying out the short sale and purchase to cover as I had intended.

I have now placed a limit order to buy UBS at USD 28.91, roughly the equivalent of CHF 30.

Roche pays dividend

Roche (ROG) paid a dividend of CHF 4.60 per certificate today.

Evaluating Silicom

After I sold Silicom (SILC) on 4 February 2008 the price moved sideways and in the last few days dropped. I plan to keep an eye on it for a possible new purchase.

SaraSelect fund

In today's CASHdaily I read a German-language article about the SaraSelect fund (ISIN code: CH0001234068) and subsequently I read the fact sheet of this fund. As I like the prospects, I place a buy order.

UBS continues to fall

The price of UBS approached my limit to buy to cover yesterday. The low for the day was USD 29.25; my limit is USD 28.91.

The German-language newspaper CASHdaily had an article saying that JP MOrgan estimates that UBS will have to write off another CHF 18.5 billion of bad debts, which will make a second cash infusion necessary. Another possibility would be to split UBS up and sell some parts, according to Andreas Venditti, analyst of Zürcher Kantonalbank.

UBS: changing limit for buy order to cover

To adjust for the drop in the exchange rate for USD I increase the limit order to buy UBS to USD 28.91, this being today's equivalent of CHF 30.00

Novartis pays dividend

Novartis (NOVN) paid a dividend of CHF 1.60 per share today.

Sold Swatch

My order to sell Swatch at the open was executed at CHF 61.50, with a gain of 8.8% in 42 days.

Sell signal for Swatch

Swatch (UHRN) closed below the trendline today and I change my stop-loss order to an order to sell at market at tomorrow's open.

sold UBS short

Shortly before the open on Nasdaq, UBS traded at CHF 36.68 (USD 33.5225) on SWX. On Nasdaq, it traded as high as USD 33.68 before the open, opened at USD 33.56, and my order to sell short got executed at 33.6901

I have now placed a limit order to buy to cover at USD 27.23 and am keeping my fingers crossed that all will go well.

UBS: thinking about short-selling

I am thinking about short-selling shares of UBS (Nasdaq:UBS), something I should have done much earlier. I was reminded of this trading strategy when I read about it in today's CASHdaily, a German-language publication. The article mentions these interesting things:

– Short sales sent the stock price down to CHF 35 (USD 31.74) on Friday.

– When Credit Suisse had a crisis in 2002/2003, the stock fell below a price/book ratio of 1. With UBS, a price/book ratio of 1 would correspond to a fair value of about CHF 30.

– The "toxic assets" (overvalued mortgaged properties) on the books still amount to CHF 90 billion. Analysts estimate the need for additional write-offs at CHF 20 billion.

– Agressive hedge fund managers could drive the price of UBS below CHF 30. Recommendation: place a buy order at CHF 30.

At the moment, UBS is trading on SWX at CHF 35.30, which was Friday's closing price.

I thought I would watch UBS at the open on Nasdaq today and and perhaps make a short sale with a limit of USD 32.68, which was the close on Nasdaq on Friday, then try to buy to cover at maximum 27.23, ie slightly more than the equivalent of CHF 30. However, I just realised that the market is closed today because of a pulblic holiday (President's day) and I shall have to wait and see what tommorrow brings.

Analysing ABB

ABB (ABBN) has come to my attention today. The CEO resigned yesterday because of differences over buyout strategies. The price gapped down today and is trading over 8% below yesterday's close.

On the other hand, figures published yesterday show that ABB had a good result in 2007 according to an article in today's Neue Zuercher Zeitung (in German language): profit up from CHF 1.4 billion to CHF 3.8 billion; EBIT up from 11.1% to 13.1%. For a moment I was tempted to buy ABB today but then decided against it. I have a feeling that the price will go down some more for a while before going up again. My basic question is: will the recession cause a decline in the demand for ABB's products and services? I fear that it will.

Link to company profile.

Evaluating Google

After selling Google (GOOG) on 9 November at USD 673.22 I had difficulties buying it back at a lower price; bought it eventually on 22 November at USD 670.00. After that, I decided not to try and follow every price swing and instead just wait patiently for the price to continue to rise to at least USD 800. On hindsight, this was a mistake.

Looking at GOOG's technical chart today I see the low of USD 480.46 on 16 August 2007 as the resistence and this was not broken with the recent low of USD 488.52 on 5 February.

Intraday yesterday, the pricce broke through the downward trendline but did not close above it, hence no clear indication yet of a reversal.

Watching Meyer Burger

Active in setting up production plants for wafers for the solar energy industry, Meyer Burger (MBTN) projects sales growth of 20% for 2008.

I expect the shares price to fall some more for another month or two and then to rise.

Ordered hedge fund Reichmuth Matterhorn

I read about the hedge fund Reichmuth Matterhorn (ISIN No. CH0015193623) today in the Swiss paper CASHdaily and placed an order for it, but for the one denominated in CHF (ISIN No. CH0015193656). Apparently, the net asset value (NAV) is calculated only at the end of every month, which means that my order will probably get executed at the beginning of March.

The news article, which is in German, mentions that growth was 24.0% in the last two years, 15.4% in 2007.

The data sheet for this fund shows a graph for the USD-denominated fund but lower down on the page gives the table for the CHF-denominated fund, which is the one I have bought. With these figures, I have made the chart on the left.

Sold Silicom

I watched Silicom (SILC) on a 15-minute chart and after 13.30 h EST placed a stop order at USD 16.58. This got executed at 14.02 h partially at USD 16.50 and the remainder at USD 16.56, average USD 16.54. Profit 18.5% in 81 days.

Analising PFE

The price of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) is moving in the right direction but I think it will take some time until it moves into the profit zone. I bought the stock in July at USD 25.79. Friday's close was USD 23.59

Analysing SILC

The price of Silicom (SILC) touched the resistance line on Friday at USD 15.23. If it breaks through it today my limit of USD 15.50 may be too low and therefore I now cancel it.